Global solar demand is slowing but not stopping. Market research firm CRU expects 590 GW of new solar capacity worldwide in 2026, down about 12% from 2025, mainly because demand in China has weakened. China’s polysilicon capacity alone is about three times global demand, so the market still needs time to rebalance.
Overseas demand remains stronger. In the first four months of 2026, China’s solar product exports rose about 43% year on year. In April, module exports to Southeast Asia jumped 267%. In the first half of 2026, China’s solar module exports were worth US$13.197 billion, with the EU taking 37.8%.
Europe reached a historic milestone. In June 2026, solar power produced 25% of the EU’s electricity — 52 billion kWh (52 TWh) — becoming the EU’s largest power source for the month for the first time, ahead of nuclear, gas and wind. Germany’s solar share was 36%, and Spain’s was 34%. At the same time, the EU is tightening market access through the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, increasing pressure for local supply chains.
Trade tensions continue. In July 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched another anti-circumvention investigation into Chinese crystalline silicon solar cells. As barriers rise in traditional markets, the Middle East and Africa are becoming new growth areas, with EPC contracts and manufacturing expanding in Oman, Ethiopia and Kenya.
